Economic analysis
Real activity and financial conditions
The economic analysis assesses the short to medium-term determinants of price developments. The focus is on real
activity and financial conditions in the economy. The economic analysis takes account of the fact that price
developments over those horizons are influenced largely by the interplay of supply and demand in the goods,
services and factor markets.
To do so, the ECB regularly reviews, inter alia,
- developments in overall output,
- demand and labour market conditions,
- a broad range of price and cost indicators,
- fiscal policy, and
- the balance of payments for the euro area.
The economic analysis also includes a thorough analysis of shocks hitting the euro area economy,
their effects on cost and pricing behaviour and the short to medium-term prospects for their propagation in
the economy.
Asset prices and financial yields
These variables are also analysed to derive information about the expectations of the financial markets, including
expected future price developments. For example, when buying and selling bonds, financial market participants
implicitly reveal their expectations about future developments in real GDP growth and inflation. Using a variety of
techniques, a central bank can analyse financial prices to extract the markets’ implicit expectations about future
developments.
Macroeconomic projections
The macroeconomic projections are produced under the responsibility of ECB/Eurosystem staff using a number of analytical
and empirical models. The projections help to structure and synthesise a large amount of economic data. They ensure
consistency across different sources of economic evidence.
They are a key element in sharpening the assessment of economic prospects and the short to medium-term fluctuations of
inflation around its trend. Overall, projections play an important but not all-encompassing role in the ECB’s monetary
policy strategy.
Latest projection (under "Publications")
Past projection ranges (since December 2000)
Related publications
-
Confidence indicators and economic developments, ECB Monthly Bulletin, January 2013
-
The development of prices and costs during the 2008-09 recession, ECB Monthly Bulletin, April 2012
-
The Great Inflation: lessons for monetary policy, ECB Monthly Bulletin, May 2010
-
Tools for preparing short-term projections of euro area inflation, ECB Monthly Bulletin article, May 2010
-
The latest euro area recession in a historical context, ECB Monthly Bulletin article, November 2009
-
Euro area private consumption - Is there a role for housing wealth effects? ECB working paper no 1057, May 2009 [1.06 MB]
-
Housing wealth and private consumption in the euro area. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, January 2009
-
Institutional features of wage bargaining in 23 European countries, the US and Japan. ECB working paper no 974, December 2008 [1.25 MB]
-
Early estimates of euro area real GDP growth – a bottom up approach from the production side. ECB working paper no 975, December 2008 [1.4 MB]
-
Short-term forecasts of euro area GDP growth. ECB working paper no 949, October 2008
-
An analysis of youth unemployment in the euro area. ECB occasional paper no. 89, June 2008
-
Short-term forecasts of economic activity in the euro area. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, April 2008
-
Productivity developments and monetary policy. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, January 2008
-
Globalisation, trade and the euro area macroeconomy. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, January 2008
-
Demographic Change in the euro area: projections and consequences. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, October 2006
-
Output growth differentials across the euro area countries: some stylised facts. ECB occasional paper no. 45, May 2006 [2.11 MB]
-
Competition, productivity and prices in the euro area services sector. ECB occasional paper no. 44, April 2006 [1.52 MB]
-
Price-setting behaviour in the euro area. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, November 2005 [1.85 MB]
-
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices: concept, properties and experience to date. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, July 2005 [2.86 MB]
-
Competitiveness and export performance. ECB occasional paper no. 30, June 2005 [1.09 MB]
-
Monetary policy and inflation differentials in a heterogeneous currency area. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, May 2005 [1.81 MB]
-
Assessing potential output growth in the euro area - a growth accounting perspective. ECB occasional paper no 22, January 2005
-
Oil prices and the euro area economy. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, November 2004 [1.78 MB]
-
Extracting information from financial asset prices. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, November 2004 [1.78 MB]
-
Sectoral specialisation in the EU. ECB occasional paper no. 19, July 2004
-
Measuring and analysing profit developments in the euro area. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, January 2004
-
Opinion surveys on activity, prices and labour market developments in the euro area. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, January 2004
-
The stock market and monetary policy. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, February 2002 [1.11 MB]
-
Measures of underlying inflation in the euro area. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, July 2001
-
A guide to Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. June 2001
-
Price and cost indicators for the euro area: an overview. ECB Monthly Bulletin article, August 2000
